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Last week was bad, really bad. Our bets ended up going 0-5 for a total loss of 5 units. Year to date we are down 22.93 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Waterson (RESULTS)
Winning Bets – NONE
Losing Bets
Marina Rodriguez ITD (-1 unit)
Marina Rodriguez dominated this fight from start to finish but she couldn’t get Waterson out of there. There were a couple of times the fight could’ve been stopped. However Waterson was ultra tough and lasted the full 5 rounds.
Gregor Gillespie by decision (-1 unit)
We thought Gillespie would win by decision because of his wrestling. However his relentless pace was something Ferreira couldn’t keep up with and he ended up getting pounded out at the end of round 2.
Kyle Daukaus by submission (-1 unit)
We felt Daukaus had a chance to tire out Hawes and potentially sub him later in the fight. That didn’t happen and it was actually Hawes who was the fresher fighter at the end of the fight.
Tafon Nchukwi ITD (-1 unit)
We felt if Nchukwi was going to win it would be by a finish. It turns out he was overmatched against a better fighter with a lot more fight experience. Park took Nchukwi into deep waters and was close to finishing him at the end of the fight.
Marina Rodriguez / Gregor Gillespie / Carlston Harris / Donald Cerrone parlay (-1 unit)
And this is why parlays are sucker bets. We were correct in predicting victories for Harris, Gillespie, and Rodriguez. However we also thought Cerrone would bounce back and he got finished in round 1 killing our parlay.
UFC 262: Oliveira vs Chandler (PLAYS)
Tucker Lutz over Kevin Aguilar -125 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/14/21.
Tucker Lutz is making his UFC debut after coming off 2 wins on the Contender Series. His style isn’t very exciting but he’s well rounded with a strong wrestling base.
Kevin Aguilar started off 2-0 in the UFC but has gone 0-3 in his last 3 fights. Most alarming is losing a decision to Charles Rosa in his last fight. We feel Lutz will be more active and should do enough to get the victory in this spot.
Antonina Shevchenko over Andrea Lee -125 (-1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/14/21.
The winner of this fight will most likely be determined by where the fight takes place. If the fight takes place on the ground then we see Lee having the advantage as she’s the better grappler. If it plays out on the feet then Shevchenko will be at an advantage as she’s the better striker.
We feel the fight will play out mostly on the feet thus giving Shevchenko the advantage. Lee is the slower fighter and her wrestling is average at best. Shevchenko should be able to keep the fight standing where she’s the superior striker and get the victory.
Mike Grundy over Lando Vannata -125 (-1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/14/21.
This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup and we’re going with the grappler here. Mike Grundy has a strong wrestling base and we see him being able to take down Vannata with ease. If that’s the case then he should be able to control Vannata on the ground.
Vannata is a flashy striker but doesn’t have the best take down defense. He’s had trouble in the past against fighters with good wrestling. That’s exactly what Grundy brings to the table so he’ll most likely need to stop Grundy to get the victory in this spot.
Edson Barboza over Shane Burgos +125 (-1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/14/21.
This should be a contender for fight of the night. Both Barboza and Burgos bring it and have exciting finishes on their records. There’s a huge difference in the quality of opposition between the two however.
Edson Barboza has fought the best of the best at lightweight and has some impressive victories. He’s looked good in his 2 fights at featherweight as well. Shane Burgos is a good fighter but his biggest problem is his striking defense. Simply put he gets hit too easy and you don’t want Barboza landing clean shots on you. We feel Barboza will be able to land on Burgos enough to get the victory.
Matt Schnell over Rogerio Bontorin -175 (-1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/14/21.
This is an exciting matchup of 2 flyweights fighting at bantamweight. Matt Schnell is fighting in good form right now winning 4 of his last 5 fights. Bontorin on the other hand has lost his last 2 fights and is coming off a 1st round KO just 2 months ago.
Schnell’s boxing has improved greatly and he has the faster hands here. If the fight goes to the ground Schnell is good there too. His issue has been his chin in the past so as long as he doesn’t get KO’d he should pick up the victory in this spot.
Beneil Dariush over Tony Ferguson -175 (-1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/14/21.
This fight features 2 fighters headed in opposite directions. Dariush is making a run at lightweight and is currently on a 6 fight win streak. Tony Ferguson on the other hand has lost his last 2 fights and appears to be falling off a cliff.
Ferguson’s loss to Gaethje seems to have changed him. He took a great beating in that fight and wasn’t even competitive against Charles Oliveira in his last fight. Oliveira was able to easily control him on the ground. Beneil Dariush is a better wrestler than Oliveira so we see that happening again here. Unless Ferguson can finish Dariush we see him getting dominated again in this fight.
Michael Chandler over Charles Oliveira ITD +200 (-1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/14/21.
The winner of this fight will be the new UFC lightweight champion. This fight feels like it will end inside the distance one way or another. Michael Chandler was ultra impressive in his UFC debut finishing the normally durable Dan Hooker in round 1. Charles Oliveira is currently on a 8 fight winning streak and has been dominate in all of those fights.
This fight can go either way and our bet was based on the good odds more than anything else. If Chandler wins it appears it would be by finish more than by decision. He has fast hands and good power. Oliveira has been unbeatable of late and can win on the feet or on the ground at any moment. This fight can be ended by either fighter and the only surprise would be if it goes to decision.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
