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Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off the worst betting week in the history of Capper’s Delight. Our bets went 0-6 for a total loss of 15 units. Year to date our bets are down 6.33 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Beta.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs Korean Zombie (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
NONE
Losing Bets
Josh Fremd (-3 units)
This bet started our night off in the wrong direction. We liked Fremd’s size and power in this matchup. What we failed to realize was that he could be out grappled. And that’s exactly what Hernandez did for the duration of the fight.
Jared Vanderaa / Vinc Pichel / Tecia Torres parlay (-2 units)
This bet like every bet on this card never had a chance. We placed this bet just in case Petr Yan ended up losing (which he did). Vanderaa was the better stand up fighter but wanted to play in the ground with Oleinik and paid for it. Pichel is a better all around fighter than Madsen but he’s not a better wrestler. He couldn’t overcome the wrestling disadvantage. Torres vs Dern was a close fight but Dern had the more meaningful moments.
Petr Yan / Jared Vanderaa parlay (-3 units)
We put all of our eggs into the Petr Yan basket for this card and it didn’t work out. Even if he had won our other picks were so bad that we would’ve still lost 15 units. The Sterling Yan fight came down to who won round 1 as the rest of the rounds were clear. Yan has no one to blame but himself as he’s a notoriously slow starter.
Petr Yan / Vinc Pichel (-3 units)
Here’s another parlay that didn’t have a chance as both fighters lost. Coincidentally both fighters were out wrestled by their opponents and that was the main reason for their defeats.
Petr Yan / Tecia Torres parlay (-3 units)
This was the last parlay to lose during our horrific night of betting. Both fights were extremely close but we ended up on the wrong side of both. We knew taking Torres would be risky but we didn’t think the Yan fight would be as close as it was.
Vinc Pichel by submission (-1 unit)
We needed this long shot prop to come through and save our night. Of course it didn’t and it only added to our losses. We had the right reasoning behind making the bet – Madsen gasses later in fights and Pichel himself tweeted about subbing him. But in the end Madsen didn’t gas and completely dominated Pichel with his wrestling.
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Muhammad 2 (PLAYS)
Devin Clark over William Knight by decision +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 4/15/22.
Devin Clark holds a distinct wrestling advantage over Knight in this matchup. William Knight brings big power but can be taken down. All signs point to Clark wanting to take Knight down and wrestle him which would neutralize his power. We feel the fight will go to the scorecards because Clark isn’t much of a finisher. Also Knight is durable and hard to finish.
Pat Sabatini over TJ Laramie ITD +130 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 4/15/22.
Pat Sabatini holds all the advantages over Laramie and the odds reflect it. TJ Laramie might not be UFC level and he’s been finished 3 times in his career before. We feel this is a big mismatch and one that Sabatini’s experience and skill will be too much. It will most likely only take 1 mistake by Laramie to lose this fight inside the distance.
Vicente Luque over Belal Muhammad ITD +130 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 4/15/22.
This is a rematch from a fight that took place over 5 years ago. Both fighters have improved greatly since their 1st encounter. This fight is most likely going to come down to Muhammad’s wrestling. If he’s able to continuously take down Luque and control him he will win the fight. If the fight remains standing then Muhammad is at risk to getting finished at any moment like in the 1st fight.
The bottom line is Luque is a bonafide finisher. He’s equally dangerous on the feet or on the ground. Muhammad doesn’t possess the type of power required to finish a guy like Luque. For that reason we feel Luque will find an opening at some point during the fight and end it like he does in most fights.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com
