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We had another profitable night of bets making it back to back weeks. Some of our bets were refunded as the Landwehr and Santos fights were cancelled last second. Our bets ended up going 3-2 on the night for a total win of 1.53 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +7.11 units with an overall ROI of 2%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 4%.
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Vettori (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Louis Smolka & Jose Quiñonez fight doesn’t go the distance (+1.20 units)
This was the 8th Louis Smolka fight in a row that failed to make it to the final horn. The fight played out pretty much as expected with Smolka pressing the pace and Quiñonez actively countering. Ultimately the fight came to an end in round 2 after Smolka was able to get a ground and pound stoppage.
Ilia Topuria & Jamahal Hill parlay (+1.08 units)
This was originally supposed to be a 3 leg parlay but became a 2 leg parlay when the Taila Santos fight got cancelled. Ilia Topuria proved to be too much on the feet for Damon Jackson to handle and got the easy 1st round TKO. Jamahal Hill was also impressive in his toughest test to date, getting a 2nd round TKO over Ovince St. Preux.
Jamahal Hill ITD over Ovince St.Preux (+0.75 units)
We also hit a small bet on Hill winning inside the distance against St. Preux. Our prediction of Hill being too athletic for OSP came true when he was able to hurt and ultimately finish him in round 2. Hill is going to continue to be a problem for anybody who chooses to have a stand up fight with him.
Losing bets
Jack Hermansson (-1 unit)
We knew this was a risky fight to bet on because it was such a close matchup. It turned out to be Marvin Vettori’s coming out party as he nearly finished Hermansson in round 1. He then proceeded to show excellent cardio and output and got a convincing unanimous decision victory.
Matt Wiman (-0.5 units)
We couldn’t have been any more wrong betting on Wiman here as he lost in just 22 seconds. It’s safe to say nobody could’ve predicted a quick slam KO ending this fight. Matt Wiman was let go from the UFC and has since retired from the sport of MMA.
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs Moreno (PLAYS)
Brandon Moreno over Deiveson Figueiredo +240 (1 unit) & wins by decision +650 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 12/10/20.
Deiveson Figueiredo has a lot of well deserved hype behind him at the moment. He’s the reigning champ coming off 4 consecutive finishes with 3 of them coming in the 1st round. Figueiredo is pound for pound one of the hardest hitters in all of MMA. The only times he’s looked human was when he got taken to decision against fighters who implemented a wrestle heavy game plan – Jarred Brooks & Jussier Formiga.
Brandon Moreno would be wise to follow a similar game plan. Figueiredo is known for having a tough weight cut and is coming off his 2nd one in just 21 days. Moreno is battle tested and very well rounded. The feeling here is Moreno will look to extend the fight while avoiding Figueiredo’s power. If successful he would put himself in a position to win a decision by out voluming the dangerous Figueiredo.
Virna Jandiroba over Mackenzie Dern +150 (1 unit) & wins by decision +240 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 12/10/20.
This is a matchup between two decorated BJJ practitioners. Typically when these type of matchups occur the fights tend to play out on the feet. While neither fighter is a very good striker we give the slight edge to Jandiroba.
Mackenzie Dern will submit fighters with limited BJJ skills. Unfortunately for her Virna Jandiroba doesn’t fit that mold. So if she’s unable to submit Jandiroba then she’ll need to rely on her striking to get the victory. We’re betting against that happening at a nice number and added Jandiroba by decision at a nicer number.
Billy Quarantillo, Daniel Pineda, Rafael Fiziev, & Tony Ferguson parlay +572 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/10/20.
Billy Quarantillo is known for his cardio and for coming on later in fights. If he’s able to survive the 1st round he should be able to cruise to a victory.
Daniel Pineda hasn’t lost in his last 7 fights dating back to 2017. Cub Swanson is 1-4 in his last 5 fights and his best wins came over 6 years ago. We’re taking the better “now” fighter.
Rafael Fiziev is an elite striker with fast hands and great reflexes. Renato Moicano is much slower and has been KO’d in 2 of his last 3 fights. If the fight stays standing which we feel it will, Fiziev should be too much for Moicano to handle.
Tony Ferguson has beaten the better competition and has heart for days. Charles Oliveira has been beating mostly average fighters during his current win streak. He’s quit multiple times in the past and as the saying goes, once a quitter always a quitter.
Billy Quarantillo over Gavin Tucker by decision +180 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/10/20.
As we stated earlier Billy Quarantillo has great cardio and gets better as the fight goes longer. He’s been in bad spots early in fights and will need to avoid that here against Tucker. Quarantillo is not a big puncher and we feel his most likely path to victory is by way of decision.
Chase Hooper over Peter Barrett by submission +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/10/20.
Chase Hooper has bad striking but is the superior grappler here. Peter Barrett might not be UFC caliber and has been subbed twice in his career. If Hooper wins there’s a good chance it’ll be by submission. We got an excellent line while trying to turn an over -300 favorite into plus money.
Jacare Souza over Kevin Holland by submission +400 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/10/20.
This is a closely lined fight between a grizzled veteran and an up and coming prospect. Jacare has a rep for having excellent BJJ and Holland was subbed in his last loss. On top of that Holland is known for having questionable fight IQ. We were able to get a ridiculous line on Jacare by sub and feel that’s his most likely path to victory here.
Ciryl Gane over Junior Dos Santos by decision +300 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/10/20.
Ciryl Gane is one win away from being a contender in the heavyweight division. JDS on the other hand is coming off 3 straight stoppage losses. Gane has power but doesn’t go all out trying to KO his opponents. He uses a more technical, calculated approach to his fights. We’re banking on Gane not being able to finish the vastly more experienced JDS and cruising to a decision victory.
Deiveson Figueiredo over Brandon Moreno by submission +400 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.
We don’t normally have bets on both fighters in the same fight. However the odds justify taking the risk since we’ll be very profitable if one hits. We like Brandon Moreno to spring the upset over Figueiredo. However we feel if he loses there’s a good chance it’ll be by sub as Figueiredo has subbed 3 of his last 4 opponents. Plus we were able to get that line at odds significantly better than the current market.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
